locked Re: Reluctantly not going to make it to 2020 Ozarkcon


Joshua Wood
 

I don't want to dog-pile on the hysteria (and social turmoil) of COVID-19, but:

In the last 30 days, China's infection rates have plateaued, and most are returning to work.  Johns Hopkins has a wonderful dashboard for data visualization that I recommend https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html.

If an 85 fold increase in infections holds true, in one month, 11 million people will have been infected - which is still only 0.0015% of the world population.
If an 85 fold increase in deaths holds true, in one month, 432,000 people will have died.  That's 2% of the number of people who died from the 1918 flu... and right in the average estimate for annual influenza deaths (per the WHO - https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(seasonal) ), and the same number (approximately) who died from the 2009 H1N1 (swine-flu) outbreak ( https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/22738893 ).
Hubei province of china, the origination of COVID-19, and the source of 60% of all deaths from it worldwide (3,062 as of this email) - has had a total of 67,786 confirmed cases.  Since it has a population of 58.5 million people, that works out to just over 0.1% of their population having been infected.
Italy, the next highest reporter has had 15,113 confirmed cases, and 1,016 deaths.  With a 2011 census of 59.4 million, that works out to 0.025% of their population having been infected.

I think everyone should use caution, take appropriate precautions, and most importantly - wash their hands.  I think everyone should make decisions for themselves on what they feel safe doing.  I also think these are the same things that most health care professionals have been saying - for every infectious disease - every year - for decades.

I'm saddened that Ozarkcon has been canceled - but if there's a silver lining - We'll all now be able to participate in the Missouri QSO party, it looks like!  I'm expecting quite a good showing in the QRP category!  (Rules are here:  http://w0ma.org/images/MOQP2020/MO-QSO-Party-Rules-2020.pdf )

~Josh
W0ODJ

P.S. - When will be able to purchase the Cric-Keys online?  I can't wait to add one to my Crickets!


On Fri, Mar 13, 2020 at 3:13 AM AndyH <awhecker@...> wrote:
Exponential growth being what it is, every month we wait means there's an 85 fold increase in the number of infections.
https://www.albartlett.org/presentations/arithmetic_population_energy.html

You nailed it - an awful lot can happen in two months.  Behold the power of compounding.

73, Andy

On Thu, Mar 12, 2020 at 07:14 PM, n4mj wrote:
May want to wait about saying Dayton (Xenia) won't happen.  That's in May, approximately 2 months away.  Lots can happen in 2 months.
73 de n4mj//glenn

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