locked Re: Reluctantly not going to make it to 2020 Ozarkcon
Numbers can sometimes be slippery things. Attempting to draw conclusions from incomplete data is fraught with even more time flat on the ice.toggle quoted messageShow quoted text
The 85-fold estimate came from a public health expert and was a prediction of one month's growth in the US - and only the US - infection rate. It is not valid to apply the US growth rate to the entire world.
This link starts at about the 4 minute mark (after introductions). The following 14 minutes gives context for the 85 fold number.
The point is that the US is weeks behind much of the world, and about 2 weeks behind Italy. Unlike Italy and most of the rest of the so-called 'developed world', we are not testing. Two days ago only EIGHT tests were performed in the US as a whole (reported by The Hill). There are reported to be about 40 cases in Florida, but those number aren't yet in the 'official' numbers being scraped to generate the dashboard at Johns Hopkins. We're not testing, therefore our data are bad and that means conclusions of those data are invalid.
The attempted calculations for China and the rest of the world and the attempt to declare the flu has a higher death rate are not valid. Why? You began with 'confirmed cases', decided that reflected the actual number of people "infected", and then used that number to determine the death rate. Sorry - that doesn't work. We don't know how many are infected.
Based on what we've seen so far from countries doing much better than the US, this virus is working through most of the population, it's killing between 2% and 45% of those with confirmed cases, and some of the people that recover have permanent lung damage (20-30% less lung function).
The death rate for the 1918/1919 H1N1 pandemic is reported to be 2.5%. So far, using the numbers reported by the Johns Hopkins 'dashboard', the death rate for this pandemic is 3.5%. Based on the wide range of data discrepancies (Iran digging mass graves, anyone?) and that this pandemic is less than 2 months old, I wouldn't be surprised if the rate is closer to 7%.
This isn't the flu. It's not a hoax. Coronavirus doesn't care how we vote. Nobody needs to panic, but it is a serious situation that should not be taken lightly.
On Fri, Mar 13, 2020 at 03:12 PM, Joshua Wood wrote: