locked Re: Reluctantly not going to make it to 2020 Ozarkcon


Numbers can sometimes be slippery things.  Attempting to draw conclusions from incomplete data is fraught with even more time flat on the ice.

The 85-fold estimate came from a public health expert and was a prediction of one month's growth in the US - and only the US - infection rate. It is not valid to apply the US growth rate to the entire world.
Source:  https://youtu.be/IeQptwMbqlc?t=247
This link starts at about the 4 minute mark (after introductions). The following 14 minutes gives context for the 85 fold number.

The point is that the US is weeks behind much of the world, and about 2 weeks behind Italy.  Unlike Italy and most of the rest of the so-called 'developed world', we are not testing.  Two days ago only EIGHT tests were performed in the US as a whole (reported by The Hill).  There are reported to be about 40 cases in Florida, but those number aren't yet in the 'official' numbers being scraped to generate the dashboard at Johns Hopkins.  We're not testing, therefore our data are bad and that means conclusions of those data are invalid.

The attempted calculations for China and the rest of the world and the attempt to declare the flu has a higher death rate are not valid.  Why?  You began with 'confirmed cases', decided that reflected the actual number of  people "infected", and then used that number to determine the death rate.  Sorry - that doesn't work.  We don't know how many are infected.  

Based on what we've seen so far from countries doing much better than the US, this virus is working through most of the population, it's killing between 2% and 45% of those with confirmed cases, and some of the people that recover have permanent lung damage (20-30% less lung function).

  The death rate for the 1918/1919 H1N1 pandemic is reported to be 2.5%.  So far, using the numbers reported by the Johns Hopkins 'dashboard', the death rate for this pandemic is 3.5%.  Based on the wide range of data discrepancies (Iran digging mass graves, anyone?) and that this pandemic is less than 2 months old, I wouldn't be surprised if the rate is closer to 7%.
  This isn't the flu.  It's not a hoax.  Coronavirus doesn't care how we vote.  Nobody needs to panic, but it is a serious situation that should not be taken lightly.

73, Andy

On Fri, Mar 13, 2020 at 03:12 PM, Joshua Wood wrote:
I don't want to dog-pile on the hysteria (and social turmoil) of COVID-19, but:
In the last 30 days, China's infection rates have plateaued, and most are returning to work.  Johns Hopkins has a wonderful dashboard for data visualization that I recommend https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html.

If an 85 fold increase in infections holds true, in one month, 11 million people will have been infected - which is still only 0.0015% of the world population.
If an 85 fold increase in deaths holds true, in one month, 432,000 people will have died.  That's 2% of the number of people who died from the 1918 flu... and right in the average estimate for annual influenza deaths (per the WHO - https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(seasonal) ), and the same number (approximately) who died from the 2009 H1N1 (swine-flu) outbreak ( https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/22738893 ).
Hubei province of china, the origination of COVID-19, and the source of 60% of all deaths from it worldwide (3,062 as of this email) - has had a total of 67,786 confirmed cases.  Since it has a population of 58.5 million people, that works out to just over 0.1% of their population having been infected.
Italy, the next highest reporter has had 15,113 confirmed cases, and 1,016 deaths.  With a 2011 census of 59.4 million, that works out to 0.025% of their population having been infected.

I think everyone should use caution, take appropriate precautions, and most importantly - wash their hands.  I think everyone should make decisions for themselves on what they feel safe doing.  I also think these are the same things that most health care professionals have been saying - for every infectious disease - every year - for decades.
I'm saddened that Ozarkcon has been canceled - but if there's a silver lining - We'll all now be able to participate in the Missouri QSO party, it looks like!  I'm expecting quite a good showing in the QRP category!  (Rules are here:  http://w0ma.org/images/MOQP2020/MO-QSO-Party-Rules-2020.pdf )
P.S. - When will be able to purchase the Cric-Keys online?  I can't wait to add one to my Crickets!

On Fri, Mar 13, 2020 at 3:13 AM AndyH <awhecker@...> wrote:
Exponential growth being what it is, every month we wait means there's an 85 fold increase in the number of infections.

You nailed it - an awful lot can happen in two months.  Behold the power of compounding.

73, Andy

On Thu, Mar 12, 2020 at 07:14 PM, n4mj wrote:
May want to wait about saying Dayton (Xenia) won't happen.  That's in May, approximately 2 months away.  Lots can happen in 2 months.
73 de n4mj//glenn



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