Date   

locked Re: Reluctantly not going to make it to 2020 Ozarkcon

Joshua Wood
 

You're right - numbers can be very slippery things.

Influenza numbers (number infected, mortality rate, etc) are all based on the CDC and WHO anticipated numbers - not those who are confirmed by testing.  Our mortality rate with COVID-19 is comparing deaths ONLY to those with confirmed cases - which shows an artificially higher rate (since we're testing / confirming in patients who show symptoms / having issues, and not the general population as a whole).  So you're right - the mortality rate can't be calculated by the current numbers we have - but it will most certainly be LOWER than it.

Based on the CDC's numbers for COVID-19 testing (which just so happens to be a re purposed test for SARS), we've collected / tested 12,500 samples, as of 3/8.  That's a lot more than "8" per The Hill.  (https://www.cdc.gov/coronavirus/2019-ncov/cases-updates/testing-in-us.html)

This is an email group about QRP, and particularly the 4SQRP - my hope was to show that even if there was a "massive" 85 fold increase (which is an arbitrary number, and out of context), there is still little reason to panic.  We should be focusing on enjoying QRP.  We should be listening to dedicated health professionals for medical information and advice - not business/political reporters, politicians, or political pundits.  We should be enjoying all aspects of our hobby (building, designing, operating).  And most importantly - we should be washing our hands.

Sorry if I offended anyone.

73,
~Josh
W0ODJ



On Fri, Mar 13, 2020 at 10:05 PM AndyH <awhecker@...> wrote:
Numbers can sometimes be slippery things.  Attempting to draw conclusions from incomplete data is fraught with even more time flat on the ice.

The 85-fold estimate came from a public health expert and was a prediction of one month's growth in the US - and only the US - infection rate. It is not valid to apply the US growth rate to the entire world.
Source:  https://youtu.be/IeQptwMbqlc?t=247
This link starts at about the 4 minute mark (after introductions). The following 14 minutes gives context for the 85 fold number.

The point is that the US is weeks behind much of the world, and about 2 weeks behind Italy.  Unlike Italy and most of the rest of the so-called 'developed world', we are not testing.  Two days ago only EIGHT tests were performed in the US as a whole (reported by The Hill).  There are reported to be about 40 cases in Florida, but those number aren't yet in the 'official' numbers being scraped to generate the dashboard at Johns Hopkins.  We're not testing, therefore our data are bad and that means conclusions of those data are invalid.

The attempted calculations for China and the rest of the world and the attempt to declare the flu has a higher death rate are not valid.  Why?  You began with 'confirmed cases', decided that reflected the actual number of  people "infected", and then used that number to determine the death rate.  Sorry - that doesn't work.  We don't know how many are infected.  

Based on what we've seen so far from countries doing much better than the US, this virus is working through most of the population, it's killing between 2% and 45% of those with confirmed cases, and some of the people that recover have permanent lung damage (20-30% less lung function).
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-recovery-damage-lung-function-gasping-air-hong-kong-doctors-2020-3

  The death rate for the 1918/1919 H1N1 pandemic is reported to be 2.5%.  So far, using the numbers reported by the Johns Hopkins 'dashboard', the death rate for this pandemic is 3.5%.  Based on the wide range of data discrepancies (Iran digging mass graves, anyone?) and that this pandemic is less than 2 months old, I wouldn't be surprised if the rate is closer to 7%.
  This isn't the flu.  It's not a hoax.  Coronavirus doesn't care how we vote.  Nobody needs to panic, but it is a serious situation that should not be taken lightly.

73, Andy

On Fri, Mar 13, 2020 at 03:12 PM, Joshua Wood wrote:
I don't want to dog-pile on the hysteria (and social turmoil) of COVID-19, but:
 
In the last 30 days, China's infection rates have plateaued, and most are returning to work.  Johns Hopkins has a wonderful dashboard for data visualization that I recommend https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html.

If an 85 fold increase in infections holds true, in one month, 11 million people will have been infected - which is still only 0.0015% of the world population.
If an 85 fold increase in deaths holds true, in one month, 432,000 people will have died.  That's 2% of the number of people who died from the 1918 flu... and right in the average estimate for annual influenza deaths (per the WHO - https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(seasonal) ), and the same number (approximately) who died from the 2009 H1N1 (swine-flu) outbreak ( https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/22738893 ).
Hubei province of china, the origination of COVID-19, and the source of 60% of all deaths from it worldwide (3,062 as of this email) - has had a total of 67,786 confirmed cases.  Since it has a population of 58.5 million people, that works out to just over 0.1% of their population having been infected.
Italy, the next highest reporter has had 15,113 confirmed cases, and 1,016 deaths.  With a 2011 census of 59.4 million, that works out to 0.025% of their population having been infected.

I think everyone should use caution, take appropriate precautions, and most importantly - wash their hands.  I think everyone should make decisions for themselves on what they feel safe doing.  I also think these are the same things that most health care professionals have been saying - for every infectious disease - every year - for decades.
 
I'm saddened that Ozarkcon has been canceled - but if there's a silver lining - We'll all now be able to participate in the Missouri QSO party, it looks like!  I'm expecting quite a good showing in the QRP category!  (Rules are here:  http://w0ma.org/images/MOQP2020/MO-QSO-Party-Rules-2020.pdf )
 
~Josh
W0ODJ
 
P.S. - When will be able to purchase the Cric-Keys online?  I can't wait to add one to my Crickets!


On Fri, Mar 13, 2020 at 3:13 AM AndyH <awhecker@...> wrote:
Exponential growth being what it is, every month we wait means there's an 85 fold increase in the number of infections.
https://www.albartlett.org/presentations/arithmetic_population_energy.html

You nailed it - an awful lot can happen in two months.  Behold the power of compounding.

73, Andy

On Thu, Mar 12, 2020 at 07:14 PM, n4mj wrote:
May want to wait about saying Dayton (Xenia) won't happen.  That's in May, approximately 2 months away.  Lots can happen in 2 months.
73 de n4mj//glenn

 

 


Ozarkcon > Brutus Bash

Casey
 

Perhaps many of those that wanted to come to Ozarkcon can make it to the Brutus Bash.  Granted, it's not the same thing, but phun is fun in any form.

Ozarkcon falls too early in the year for me ($) typically. Likely all the Health Concerns will be dissipated especially as it gets (much) warmer. 

During the Bash, those not attending could dust off their Crickets (and PigRigs) and operate. 

I'm looking forward to the Bash. I plan to Attend if I can get 'my' Suspension Upgrade installed by then. 

Now, to go rewrite the Lyrics to 'the Monster Mash' 

72 de CaseyK KC9IH / WD9GKA


locked Re: Reluctantly not going to make it to 2020 Ozarkcon

Johnny AC0BQ
 

Hello Tim 
Not as of yesterday!
She is waiting Patiently.
73
Johnny 

On Fri, Mar 13, 2020 at 8:50 PM Timothy East <Timothyeast@...> wrote:
Johnny, does your wife have a call yet?

Tim


On Mar 13, 2020, at 12:04, Johnny Matlock <jomatlock@...> wrote:


This is Correct Dennis 
72
Johnny 

On Fri, Mar 13, 2020 at 10:38 AM Dennis Gaskill <gaskilldg@...> wrote:
I think OzarkCon is already canceled.
Am I right ?

Dennis KC0IFQ

--
Check out the 4SQRP website at 4sqrp.com

--
Check out the 4SQRP website at 4sqrp.com


locked Re: Reluctantly not going to make it to 2020 Ozarkcon

Jim Manley
 

I missed including one critical phrase in my last transmission "in that age group could die":

Those over 80 constitute about eight percent of the U.S. population, so that could mean 4.2 million people ***in that age group could die*** _if_all_of_them_get_infected_ and the numbers are worth anything, which is more than debatable.


On Fri, Mar 13, 2020 at 10:21 PM Jim Manley <jim.manley@...> wrote:
Hi Andy,

It's not enough to quote overall rates - it's _very_ age dependent.  Kids under 15 don't seem to get any symptoms, but can transmit asymptomatically.  I don't recall seeing any deaths reported below the age of 34, but that's at least a day old now.  For people _WITH_NO_UNDERLYING_CRITICAL_HEALTH_CONDITIONS_ under the age of 50, the rough estimate is now less than 1% for ages 50 - 60, about 1% for ages 60 - 70, a few percent for ages 70 - 80, and upwards of 15% for ages 80+ (who are already above the overrall average age of death and uniformly tend to have some sort of underlying health condition).  Those over 80 constitute about eight percent of the U.S. population, so that could mean 4.2 million people _if_all_of_them_get_infected_ and the numbers are worth anything, which is more than debatable.

The key is to keep elderly and high-risk people isolated, and those who care for them directly must self-quarantine, performing intensive cleaning when handling anything delivered by people who must not enter the quarantine spaces.  Everyone else should minimize movement, stay at least six feet away from others, and perform intensive cleaning, coughing into sleeves, not sharing any material with anyone else, etc.

Take good care and 73_Morse_Animated_GIF.gif

Jim  KJ7JHE
Lame Deer HIgh School Amateur Radio Club  KJ7JKU


On Fri, Mar 13, 2020 at 9:05 PM AndyH <awhecker@...> wrote:
Numbers can sometimes be slippery things.  Attempting to draw conclusions from incomplete data is fraught with even more time flat on the ice.

The 85-fold estimate came from a public health expert and was a prediction of one month's growth in the US - and only the US - infection rate. It is not valid to apply the US growth rate to the entire world.
Source:  https://youtu.be/IeQptwMbqlc?t=247
This link starts at about the 4 minute mark (after introductions). The following 14 minutes gives context for the 85 fold number.

The point is that the US is weeks behind much of the world, and about 2 weeks behind Italy.  Unlike Italy and most of the rest of the so-called 'developed world', we are not testing.  Two days ago only EIGHT tests were performed in the US as a whole (reported by The Hill).  There are reported to be about 40 cases in Florida, but those number aren't yet in the 'official' numbers being scraped to generate the dashboard at Johns Hopkins.  We're not testing, therefore our data are bad and that means conclusions of those data are invalid.

The attempted calculations for China and the rest of the world and the attempt to declare the flu has a higher death rate are not valid.  Why?  You began with 'confirmed cases', decided that reflected the actual number of  people "infected", and then used that number to determine the death rate.  Sorry - that doesn't work.  We don't know how many are infected.  

Based on what we've seen so far from countries doing much better than the US, this virus is working through most of the population, it's killing between 2% and 45% of those with confirmed cases, and some of the people that recover have permanent lung damage (20-30% less lung function).
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-recovery-damage-lung-function-gasping-air-hong-kong-doctors-2020-3

  The death rate for the 1918/1919 H1N1 pandemic is reported to be 2.5%.  So far, using the numbers reported by the Johns Hopkins 'dashboard', the death rate for this pandemic is 3.5%.  Based on the wide range of data discrepancies (Iran digging mass graves, anyone?) and that this pandemic is less than 2 months old, I wouldn't be surprised if the rate is closer to 7%.
  This isn't the flu.  It's not a hoax.  Coronavirus doesn't care how we vote.  Nobody needs to panic, but it is a serious situation that should not be taken lightly.

73, Andy

On Fri, Mar 13, 2020 at 03:12 PM, Joshua Wood wrote:
I don't want to dog-pile on the hysteria (and social turmoil) of COVID-19, but:
 
In the last 30 days, China's infection rates have plateaued, and most are returning to work.  Johns Hopkins has a wonderful dashboard for data visualization that I recommend https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html.

If an 85 fold increase in infections holds true, in one month, 11 million people will have been infected - which is still only 0.0015% of the world population.
If an 85 fold increase in deaths holds true, in one month, 432,000 people will have died.  That's 2% of the number of people who died from the 1918 flu... and right in the average estimate for annual influenza deaths (per the WHO - https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(seasonal) ), and the same number (approximately) who died from the 2009 H1N1 (swine-flu) outbreak ( https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/22738893 ).
Hubei province of china, the origination of COVID-19, and the source of 60% of all deaths from it worldwide (3,062 as of this email) - has had a total of 67,786 confirmed cases.  Since it has a population of 58.5 million people, that works out to just over 0.1% of their population having been infected.
Italy, the next highest reporter has had 15,113 confirmed cases, and 1,016 deaths.  With a 2011 census of 59.4 million, that works out to 0.025% of their population having been infected.

I think everyone should use caution, take appropriate precautions, and most importantly - wash their hands.  I think everyone should make decisions for themselves on what they feel safe doing.  I also think these are the same things that most health care professionals have been saying - for every infectious disease - every year - for decades.
 
I'm saddened that Ozarkcon has been canceled - but if there's a silver lining - We'll all now be able to participate in the Missouri QSO party, it looks like!  I'm expecting quite a good showing in the QRP category!  (Rules are here:  http://w0ma.org/images/MOQP2020/MO-QSO-Party-Rules-2020.pdf )
 
~Josh
W0ODJ
 
P.S. - When will be able to purchase the Cric-Keys online?  I can't wait to add one to my Crickets!


On Fri, Mar 13, 2020 at 3:13 AM AndyH <awhecker@...> wrote:
Exponential growth being what it is, every month we wait means there's an 85 fold increase in the number of infections.
https://www.albartlett.org/presentations/arithmetic_population_energy.html

You nailed it - an awful lot can happen in two months.  Behold the power of compounding.

73, Andy

On Thu, Mar 12, 2020 at 07:14 PM, n4mj wrote:
May want to wait about saying Dayton (Xenia) won't happen.  That's in May, approximately 2 months away.  Lots can happen in 2 months.
73 de n4mj//glenn

 

 


locked Re: Reluctantly not going to make it to 2020 Ozarkcon

Jim Manley
 

Hi Andy,

It's not enough to quote overall rates - it's _very_ age dependent.  Kids under 15 don't seem to get any symptoms, but can transmit asymptomatically.  I don't recall seeing any deaths reported below the age of 34, but that's at least a day old now.  For people _WITH_NO_UNDERLYING_CRITICAL_HEALTH_CONDITIONS_ under the age of 50, the rough estimate is now less than 1% for ages 50 - 60, about 1% for ages 60 - 70, a few percent for ages 70 - 80, and upwards of 15% for ages 80+ (who are already above the overrall average age of death and uniformly tend to have some sort of underlying health condition).  Those over 80 constitute about eight percent of the U.S. population, so that could mean 4.2 million people _if_all_of_them_get_infected_ and the numbers are worth anything, which is more than debatable.

The key is to keep elderly and high-risk people isolated, and those who care for them directly must self-quarantine, performing intensive cleaning when handling anything delivered by people who must not enter the quarantine spaces.  Everyone else should minimize movement, stay at least six feet away from others, and perform intensive cleaning, coughing into sleeves, not sharing any material with anyone else, etc.

Take good care and 73_Morse_Animated_GIF.gif

Jim  KJ7JHE
Lame Deer HIgh School Amateur Radio Club  KJ7JKU


On Fri, Mar 13, 2020 at 9:05 PM AndyH <awhecker@...> wrote:
Numbers can sometimes be slippery things.  Attempting to draw conclusions from incomplete data is fraught with even more time flat on the ice.

The 85-fold estimate came from a public health expert and was a prediction of one month's growth in the US - and only the US - infection rate. It is not valid to apply the US growth rate to the entire world.
Source:  https://youtu.be/IeQptwMbqlc?t=247
This link starts at about the 4 minute mark (after introductions). The following 14 minutes gives context for the 85 fold number.

The point is that the US is weeks behind much of the world, and about 2 weeks behind Italy.  Unlike Italy and most of the rest of the so-called 'developed world', we are not testing.  Two days ago only EIGHT tests were performed in the US as a whole (reported by The Hill).  There are reported to be about 40 cases in Florida, but those number aren't yet in the 'official' numbers being scraped to generate the dashboard at Johns Hopkins.  We're not testing, therefore our data are bad and that means conclusions of those data are invalid.

The attempted calculations for China and the rest of the world and the attempt to declare the flu has a higher death rate are not valid.  Why?  You began with 'confirmed cases', decided that reflected the actual number of  people "infected", and then used that number to determine the death rate.  Sorry - that doesn't work.  We don't know how many are infected.  

Based on what we've seen so far from countries doing much better than the US, this virus is working through most of the population, it's killing between 2% and 45% of those with confirmed cases, and some of the people that recover have permanent lung damage (20-30% less lung function).
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-recovery-damage-lung-function-gasping-air-hong-kong-doctors-2020-3

  The death rate for the 1918/1919 H1N1 pandemic is reported to be 2.5%.  So far, using the numbers reported by the Johns Hopkins 'dashboard', the death rate for this pandemic is 3.5%.  Based on the wide range of data discrepancies (Iran digging mass graves, anyone?) and that this pandemic is less than 2 months old, I wouldn't be surprised if the rate is closer to 7%.
  This isn't the flu.  It's not a hoax.  Coronavirus doesn't care how we vote.  Nobody needs to panic, but it is a serious situation that should not be taken lightly.

73, Andy

On Fri, Mar 13, 2020 at 03:12 PM, Joshua Wood wrote:
I don't want to dog-pile on the hysteria (and social turmoil) of COVID-19, but:
 
In the last 30 days, China's infection rates have plateaued, and most are returning to work.  Johns Hopkins has a wonderful dashboard for data visualization that I recommend https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html.

If an 85 fold increase in infections holds true, in one month, 11 million people will have been infected - which is still only 0.0015% of the world population.
If an 85 fold increase in deaths holds true, in one month, 432,000 people will have died.  That's 2% of the number of people who died from the 1918 flu... and right in the average estimate for annual influenza deaths (per the WHO - https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(seasonal) ), and the same number (approximately) who died from the 2009 H1N1 (swine-flu) outbreak ( https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/22738893 ).
Hubei province of china, the origination of COVID-19, and the source of 60% of all deaths from it worldwide (3,062 as of this email) - has had a total of 67,786 confirmed cases.  Since it has a population of 58.5 million people, that works out to just over 0.1% of their population having been infected.
Italy, the next highest reporter has had 15,113 confirmed cases, and 1,016 deaths.  With a 2011 census of 59.4 million, that works out to 0.025% of their population having been infected.

I think everyone should use caution, take appropriate precautions, and most importantly - wash their hands.  I think everyone should make decisions for themselves on what they feel safe doing.  I also think these are the same things that most health care professionals have been saying - for every infectious disease - every year - for decades.
 
I'm saddened that Ozarkcon has been canceled - but if there's a silver lining - We'll all now be able to participate in the Missouri QSO party, it looks like!  I'm expecting quite a good showing in the QRP category!  (Rules are here:  http://w0ma.org/images/MOQP2020/MO-QSO-Party-Rules-2020.pdf )
 
~Josh
W0ODJ
 
P.S. - When will be able to purchase the Cric-Keys online?  I can't wait to add one to my Crickets!


On Fri, Mar 13, 2020 at 3:13 AM AndyH <awhecker@...> wrote:
Exponential growth being what it is, every month we wait means there's an 85 fold increase in the number of infections.
https://www.albartlett.org/presentations/arithmetic_population_energy.html

You nailed it - an awful lot can happen in two months.  Behold the power of compounding.

73, Andy

On Thu, Mar 12, 2020 at 07:14 PM, n4mj wrote:
May want to wait about saying Dayton (Xenia) won't happen.  That's in May, approximately 2 months away.  Lots can happen in 2 months.
73 de n4mj//glenn

 

 


locked Re: Reluctantly not going to make it to 2020 Ozarkcon

AndyH
 

Numbers can sometimes be slippery things.  Attempting to draw conclusions from incomplete data is fraught with even more time flat on the ice.

The 85-fold estimate came from a public health expert and was a prediction of one month's growth in the US - and only the US - infection rate. It is not valid to apply the US growth rate to the entire world.
Source:  https://youtu.be/IeQptwMbqlc?t=247
This link starts at about the 4 minute mark (after introductions). The following 14 minutes gives context for the 85 fold number.

The point is that the US is weeks behind much of the world, and about 2 weeks behind Italy.  Unlike Italy and most of the rest of the so-called 'developed world', we are not testing.  Two days ago only EIGHT tests were performed in the US as a whole (reported by The Hill).  There are reported to be about 40 cases in Florida, but those number aren't yet in the 'official' numbers being scraped to generate the dashboard at Johns Hopkins.  We're not testing, therefore our data are bad and that means conclusions of those data are invalid.

The attempted calculations for China and the rest of the world and the attempt to declare the flu has a higher death rate are not valid.  Why?  You began with 'confirmed cases', decided that reflected the actual number of  people "infected", and then used that number to determine the death rate.  Sorry - that doesn't work.  We don't know how many are infected.  

Based on what we've seen so far from countries doing much better than the US, this virus is working through most of the population, it's killing between 2% and 45% of those with confirmed cases, and some of the people that recover have permanent lung damage (20-30% less lung function).
https://www.businessinsider.com/coronavirus-recovery-damage-lung-function-gasping-air-hong-kong-doctors-2020-3

  The death rate for the 1918/1919 H1N1 pandemic is reported to be 2.5%.  So far, using the numbers reported by the Johns Hopkins 'dashboard', the death rate for this pandemic is 3.5%.  Based on the wide range of data discrepancies (Iran digging mass graves, anyone?) and that this pandemic is less than 2 months old, I wouldn't be surprised if the rate is closer to 7%.
  This isn't the flu.  It's not a hoax.  Coronavirus doesn't care how we vote.  Nobody needs to panic, but it is a serious situation that should not be taken lightly.

73, Andy


On Fri, Mar 13, 2020 at 03:12 PM, Joshua Wood wrote:
I don't want to dog-pile on the hysteria (and social turmoil) of COVID-19, but:
 
In the last 30 days, China's infection rates have plateaued, and most are returning to work.  Johns Hopkins has a wonderful dashboard for data visualization that I recommend https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html.

If an 85 fold increase in infections holds true, in one month, 11 million people will have been infected - which is still only 0.0015% of the world population.
If an 85 fold increase in deaths holds true, in one month, 432,000 people will have died.  That's 2% of the number of people who died from the 1918 flu... and right in the average estimate for annual influenza deaths (per the WHO - https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(seasonal) ), and the same number (approximately) who died from the 2009 H1N1 (swine-flu) outbreak ( https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/22738893 ).
Hubei province of china, the origination of COVID-19, and the source of 60% of all deaths from it worldwide (3,062 as of this email) - has had a total of 67,786 confirmed cases.  Since it has a population of 58.5 million people, that works out to just over 0.1% of their population having been infected.
Italy, the next highest reporter has had 15,113 confirmed cases, and 1,016 deaths.  With a 2011 census of 59.4 million, that works out to 0.025% of their population having been infected.

I think everyone should use caution, take appropriate precautions, and most importantly - wash their hands.  I think everyone should make decisions for themselves on what they feel safe doing.  I also think these are the same things that most health care professionals have been saying - for every infectious disease - every year - for decades.
 
I'm saddened that Ozarkcon has been canceled - but if there's a silver lining - We'll all now be able to participate in the Missouri QSO party, it looks like!  I'm expecting quite a good showing in the QRP category!  (Rules are here:  http://w0ma.org/images/MOQP2020/MO-QSO-Party-Rules-2020.pdf )
 
~Josh
W0ODJ
 
P.S. - When will be able to purchase the Cric-Keys online?  I can't wait to add one to my Crickets!


On Fri, Mar 13, 2020 at 3:13 AM AndyH <awhecker@...> wrote:
Exponential growth being what it is, every month we wait means there's an 85 fold increase in the number of infections.
https://www.albartlett.org/presentations/arithmetic_population_energy.html

You nailed it - an awful lot can happen in two months.  Behold the power of compounding.

73, Andy

On Thu, Mar 12, 2020 at 07:14 PM, n4mj wrote:
May want to wait about saying Dayton (Xenia) won't happen.  That's in May, approximately 2 months away.  Lots can happen in 2 months.
73 de n4mj//glenn

 

 


locked Re: Reluctantly not going to make it to 2020 Ozarkcon

Timothy East
 

Johnny, does your wife have a call yet?

Tim


On Mar 13, 2020, at 12:04, Johnny Matlock <jomatlock@...> wrote:


This is Correct Dennis 
72
Johnny 

On Fri, Mar 13, 2020 at 10:38 AM Dennis Gaskill <gaskilldg@...> wrote:
I think OzarkCon is already canceled.
Am I right ?

Dennis KC0IFQ

--
Check out the 4SQRP website at 4sqrp.com


Re: W0RW @ Ice Station Zebra, 1900z, 11 March 2020.

John - KK4ITX
 

Paul,

Thanks for the report, looks like you were fairly successful.  I did not hear you but I did copy a couple of OPs calling you.  SB does not do well here in Florida on 14.285 as there is always chatter on 14.286 close by........ I didn’t realize that you had dropped down to 14.280.

It’s beautiful country out there, we spent a week RVING in the area in 2009 as part of a 10 week trip.

We’ll be watching for your next outing, never know how the signal goes !

73,

John
KK4ITX 

Visit:  www.zaarc.org.   👁

On Mar 13, 2020, at 17:52, w0rw <w0rw1@...> wrote:

Hi John,
Sorry i did not hear you.
i have found 14285 full of buzzing noise so have been using 14280 kHz.
Yes, the 319 was very expensive. The little hermetic TCXO alone cost $3000 (1987 dollars).
Here is my log for the day:
i worked :
W6BUX  CA,
KS4L Randy AL,
WA9PWP Paul MI,
K6FG  Mark CA,
VE3iPS John.
N8XMS Paul MI,
W4GE Rick SC,
AC2QH Larry NC,
K7VM Craig WA,
K7SS Dan WA,
WC6Y  Ken CA,
N5JSC John LA,
K6YK John CA,
XE2RN Rich,
KB4PYP Bob TN,
K8JPD Jim OH.
Had a great time.
73
Paul  w0rw 


Re: W0RW @ Ice Station Zebra, 1900z, 11 March 2020.

John
 

Pauk, sorry you didnt get my 55N at 1919 gmt on 14061 on march 11 2020 on CW?
John VE3IPS

Ham Radio is a lifestyle not a Hobby!
Take the radio outside and operate from the Field




On Fri, Mar 13, 2020 at 5:52 PM w0rw <w0rw1@...> wrote:
Hi John,
Sorry i did not hear you.
i have found 14285 full of buzzing noise so have been using 14280 kHz.
Yes, the 319 was very expensive. The little hermetic TCXO alone cost $3000 (1987 dollars).
Here is my log for the day:
i worked :
W6BUX  CA,
KS4L Randy AL,
WA9PWP Paul MI,
K6FG  Mark CA,
VE3iPS John.
N8XMS Paul MI,
W4GE Rick SC,
AC2QH Larry NC,
K7VM Craig WA,
K7SS Dan WA,
WC6Y  Ken CA,
N5JSC John LA,
K6YK John CA,
XE2RN Rich,
KB4PYP Bob TN,
K8JPD Jim OH.
Had a great time.
73
Paul  w0rw 


Re: W0RW @ Ice Station Zebra, 1900z, 11 March 2020.

w0rw
 

Hi John,
Sorry i did not hear you.
i have found 14285 full of buzzing noise so have been using 14280 kHz.
Yes, the 319 was very expensive. The little hermetic TCXO alone cost $3000 (1987 dollars).
Here is my log for the day:
i worked :
W6BUX  CA,
KS4L Randy AL,
WA9PWP Paul MI,
K6FG  Mark CA,
VE3iPS John.
N8XMS Paul MI,
W4GE Rick SC,
AC2QH Larry NC,
K7VM Craig WA,
K7SS Dan WA,
WC6Y  Ken CA,
N5JSC John LA,
K6YK John CA,
XE2RN Rich,
KB4PYP Bob TN,
K8JPD Jim OH.
Had a great time.
73
Paul  w0rw 


locked Re: Reluctantly not going to make it to 2020 Ozarkcon

Joshua Wood
 

I don't want to dog-pile on the hysteria (and social turmoil) of COVID-19, but:

In the last 30 days, China's infection rates have plateaued, and most are returning to work.  Johns Hopkins has a wonderful dashboard for data visualization that I recommend https://coronavirus.jhu.edu/map.html.

If an 85 fold increase in infections holds true, in one month, 11 million people will have been infected - which is still only 0.0015% of the world population.
If an 85 fold increase in deaths holds true, in one month, 432,000 people will have died.  That's 2% of the number of people who died from the 1918 flu... and right in the average estimate for annual influenza deaths (per the WHO - https://www.who.int/news-room/fact-sheets/detail/influenza-(seasonal) ), and the same number (approximately) who died from the 2009 H1N1 (swine-flu) outbreak ( https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/22738893 ).
Hubei province of china, the origination of COVID-19, and the source of 60% of all deaths from it worldwide (3,062 as of this email) - has had a total of 67,786 confirmed cases.  Since it has a population of 58.5 million people, that works out to just over 0.1% of their population having been infected.
Italy, the next highest reporter has had 15,113 confirmed cases, and 1,016 deaths.  With a 2011 census of 59.4 million, that works out to 0.025% of their population having been infected.

I think everyone should use caution, take appropriate precautions, and most importantly - wash their hands.  I think everyone should make decisions for themselves on what they feel safe doing.  I also think these are the same things that most health care professionals have been saying - for every infectious disease - every year - for decades.

I'm saddened that Ozarkcon has been canceled - but if there's a silver lining - We'll all now be able to participate in the Missouri QSO party, it looks like!  I'm expecting quite a good showing in the QRP category!  (Rules are here:  http://w0ma.org/images/MOQP2020/MO-QSO-Party-Rules-2020.pdf )

~Josh
W0ODJ

P.S. - When will be able to purchase the Cric-Keys online?  I can't wait to add one to my Crickets!


On Fri, Mar 13, 2020 at 3:13 AM AndyH <awhecker@...> wrote:
Exponential growth being what it is, every month we wait means there's an 85 fold increase in the number of infections.
https://www.albartlett.org/presentations/arithmetic_population_energy.html

You nailed it - an awful lot can happen in two months.  Behold the power of compounding.

73, Andy

On Thu, Mar 12, 2020 at 07:14 PM, n4mj wrote:
May want to wait about saying Dayton (Xenia) won't happen.  That's in May, approximately 2 months away.  Lots can happen in 2 months.
73 de n4mj//glenn


locked Re: Reluctantly not going to make it to 2020 Ozarkcon

Jim Parks
 

Johnny,

Thanks for the quick reply. No worries about when the refund would be taken care of. I was just curious about how it would eventually be handled. I know this was a last minute decision and it will take time to get everything in order.

 

 

73

Jim Parks  NY0J

 

 

 

From: main@4SQRP.groups.io <main@4SQRP.groups.io> On Behalf Of Johnny Matlock
Sent: Friday, March 13, 2020 2:07 PM
To: main@4sqrp.groups.io
Subject: Re: [4SQRP] Reluctantly not going to make it to 2020 Ozarkcon

 

Ge Jim

The pay pal customers will be refunded via pay pal.

Please be patient, Tom Brown is our treasurer and it will take a day or two to complete.

 

If you paid by Check, he will mail a refund check to your address on file.

 

Thanks for you patience.

72

Johnny AC0BQ 

 

On Fri, Mar 13, 2020 at 1:42 PM Jim Parks <jim.ny0j@...> wrote:

How are refunds going to be handled??

 

 

73

Jim Parks  NY0J

 

 

 

From: main@4SQRP.groups.io <main@4SQRP.groups.io> On Behalf Of Johnny Matlock
Sent: Friday, March 13, 2020 11:04 AM
To: main@4sqrp.groups.io
Subject: Re: [4SQRP] Reluctantly not going to make it to 2020 Ozarkcon

 

This is Correct Dennis 

72

Johnny 

 

On Fri, Mar 13, 2020 at 10:38 AM Dennis Gaskill <gaskilldg@...> wrote:

I think OzarkCon is already canceled.

Am I right ?

 

Dennis KC0IFQ

--

Check out the 4SQRP website at 4sqrp.com

--

Check out the 4SQRP website at 4sqrp.com


locked Re: Reluctantly not going to make it to 2020 Ozarkcon

Tom Brown
 

OCon refunds will be issued through the PayPal account in which one submitted payment. Checks will be mailed to those who paid by check.

Refunds are in the process of being processed and expect to be completed before end of day.
73,
Tom W0MFQ 

On Fri, Mar 13, 2020, 1:42 PM Jim Parks <jim.ny0j@...> wrote:

How are refunds going to be handled??

 

 

73

Jim Parks  NY0J

 

 

 

From: main@4SQRP.groups.io <main@4SQRP.groups.io> On Behalf Of Johnny Matlock
Sent: Friday, March 13, 2020 11:04 AM
To: main@4sqrp.groups.io
Subject: Re: [4SQRP] Reluctantly not going to make it to 2020 Ozarkcon

 

This is Correct Dennis 

72

Johnny 

 

On Fri, Mar 13, 2020 at 10:38 AM Dennis Gaskill <gaskilldg@...> wrote:

I think OzarkCon is already canceled.

Am I right ?

 

Dennis KC0IFQ

--

Check out the 4SQRP website at 4sqrp.com


locked Re: Reluctantly not going to make it to 2020 Ozarkcon

Johnny AC0BQ
 

Ge Jim
The pay pal customers will be refunded via pay pal.
Please be patient, Tom Brown is our treasurer and it will take a day or two to complete.

If you paid by Check, he will mail a refund check to your address on file.

Thanks for you patience.
72
Johnny AC0BQ 

On Fri, Mar 13, 2020 at 1:42 PM Jim Parks <jim.ny0j@...> wrote:

How are refunds going to be handled??

 

 

73

Jim Parks  NY0J

 

 

 

From: main@4SQRP.groups.io <main@4SQRP.groups.io> On Behalf Of Johnny Matlock
Sent: Friday, March 13, 2020 11:04 AM
To: main@4sqrp.groups.io
Subject: Re: [4SQRP] Reluctantly not going to make it to 2020 Ozarkcon

 

This is Correct Dennis 

72

Johnny 

 

On Fri, Mar 13, 2020 at 10:38 AM Dennis Gaskill <gaskilldg@...> wrote:

I think OzarkCon is already canceled.

Am I right ?

 

Dennis KC0IFQ

--

Check out the 4SQRP website at 4sqrp.com

--
Check out the 4SQRP website at 4sqrp.com


locked Re: Reluctantly not going to make it to 2020 Ozarkcon

Jim Parks
 

How are refunds going to be handled??

 

 

73

Jim Parks  NY0J

 

 

 

From: main@4SQRP.groups.io <main@4SQRP.groups.io> On Behalf Of Johnny Matlock
Sent: Friday, March 13, 2020 11:04 AM
To: main@4sqrp.groups.io
Subject: Re: [4SQRP] Reluctantly not going to make it to 2020 Ozarkcon

 

This is Correct Dennis 

72

Johnny 

 

On Fri, Mar 13, 2020 at 10:38 AM Dennis Gaskill <gaskilldg@...> wrote:

I think OzarkCon is already canceled.

Am I right ?

 

Dennis KC0IFQ

--

Check out the 4SQRP website at 4sqrp.com


locked Re: Reluctantly not going to make it to 2020 Ozarkcon

Johnny AC0BQ
 

This is Correct Dennis 
72
Johnny 

On Fri, Mar 13, 2020 at 10:38 AM Dennis Gaskill <gaskilldg@...> wrote:
I think OzarkCon is already canceled.
Am I right ?

Dennis KC0IFQ

--
Check out the 4SQRP website at 4sqrp.com


locked Re: Reluctantly not going to make it to 2020 Ozarkcon

John - KK4ITX
 

Correct, Ozarkcon 2020 will not happen.

John
KK4ITX



Click Here for Zephyrhills Area Amateur Radio Club
Many of life's failures are people who
did not realize how close they were to
success when they gave up.
       Thomas A. Edison     


On Friday, March 13, 2020, 11:38:30 AM EDT, Dennis Gaskill <gaskilldg@...> wrote:


I think OzarkCon is already canceled.
Am I right ?

Dennis KC0IFQ


locked Re: Reluctantly not going to make it to 2020 Ozarkcon

Dennis Gaskill
 

I think OzarkCon is already canceled.
Am I right ?

Dennis KC0IFQ


locked Re: Reluctantly not going to make it to 2020 Ozarkcon

AndyH
 

Exponential growth being what it is, every month we wait means there's an 85 fold increase in the number of infections.
https://www.albartlett.org/presentations/arithmetic_population_energy.html

You nailed it - an awful lot can happen in two months.  Behold the power of compounding.

73, Andy


On Thu, Mar 12, 2020 at 07:14 PM, n4mj wrote:
May want to wait about saying Dayton (Xenia) won't happen.  That's in May, approximately 2 months away.  Lots can happen in 2 months.
73 de n4mj//glenn


locked Re: Reluctantly not going to make it to 2020 Ozarkcon

John - KK4ITX
 

FLASH NEWS  !

New anti virus Lysol HF filter effective on on Straight Keys now available, other models for Paddles, Bugs and Sideswipers coming soon to a 7/11 near you..........

Asking price $29,000 but negotiable.

I understand your concerns but if you are over 70 you probably have lived through much, much worse than this event is and did not even know it because MEDIA was not in your face.

Take a deep breath, exhale.......

John
KK4ITX 


Visit:  www.zaarc.org.   👁

On Mar 12, 2020, at 21:30, John - KK4ITX via Groups.Io <jleahy00@...> wrote:

I so much want to be able to attend the 4S event but connections from Florida in any manner do not seem to work at all and it’s a very long drive when I have to come back and then go to Minnesota !     

All that aside, IMHO this “problem” has been blown way out of proportion to reality, yes if you are already in bad shape PLEASE TAKE PRECAUTIONS but otherwise it does not seem to be more than a bad cold for 80% of us.

Please don’t overreact, just wash your hands like your mother said and you’ll be OK.

This is 2020 not 1918 !

73,

John
KK4ITX 

Visit:  www.zaarc.org.   👁

On Mar 12, 2020, at 21:05, Nate Bargmann <n0nb@...> wrote:

* On 2020 12 Mar 19:15 -0500, n4mj via Groups.Io wrote:
May want to wait about saying Dayton (Xenia) won't happen.  That's in
May, approximately 2 months away.  Lots can happen in 2 months.

Indeed.  Some thought is that if this thing could grow exponentially
that there could be 8 million active cases in the US by mid-May.  If,
again there is that two letter word, 10% require hospitalization,
healthcare will be strained just by this virus alone, not to mention
everything else they handle.  

I note this not to cause alarm, but to say that everyone needs to
determine for themselves where the line between prudence and panic lies
and act accordingly.  A week ago I was promoting and planning on
attending the Nebraska ARRL convention and hamfest in Lincoln, NE this
coming Saturday.  By Monday I was having some second thoughts and as the
week wore on I was becoming more hesitant to the point that this morning
I had mostly decided not to go.  That decision became moot when the
event was postponed until Halloween shortly after noon today.

My hesitation wasn't so much a concern for my own health as even though
I'm 56 I've no underlying health issues that concern others.  My concern
was possibly unwittingly transmitting the virus to others.  That may yet
still happen but it will only happen as a result of all of us in the
local community going about our daily business and life.  That won't make
the illness any more pleasant!

I commend Bob for making his decision with the best available
information at hand.  Despite not having conferences, conventions, or
hamfests for a while, we radio amateurs are blessed that we not only
have the Internet, but the entirety of amateur radio to stay in touch
and continue to play with safe in the knowledge that we can' transmit
the disease by doing so.

At some point there will be a sense of normalcy.  Of that I am certain.

72, Nate

--

"The optimist proclaims that we live in the best of all
possible worlds.  The pessimist fears this is true."

Web: https://www.n0nb.us
Projects: https://github.com/N0NB
GPG fingerprint: 82D6 4F6B 0E67 CD41 F689 BBA6 FB2C 5130 D55A 8819




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